徐朗, 陈淮莉

《计算机集成制造系统》（EI收录）

2015-04-10

摘要

以网络零售商期望收益最大化为目标,根据客户在线时隙选择随机性的特点,建立了基于Logit模型的选择概率公式,讨论了B2C环境下,配送时隙均可用和某一时隙不可用时客户选择替代时隙的多时隙单次替代选择问题。对建立的期望收益模型通过证明和数据分析确定了网络零售商的配送时隙最优定价策略,并得出以下结论：在固定配送能力下,随着客户到达订单数的增加,存在替代下的收益高于不考虑替代时的收益;不受欢迎时隙不可用时的收益高于受欢迎时隙不可用时的收益,因此网络零售商应尽量延长受欢迎时隙开放时间,但是两种情况下收益的增加都是减缓的,说明时隙不可用会导致负面效应|且时隙的预计效用越高,时隙定价越高,网络零售商的收益也越大。

Abstract

In B2C,in order to gain maximum expected profit,under the randomness of the customers'choice behaviors,the Logit choice model (MNL) is introduced,with the availability and unavailability of time slots,the multi-time slots with single substitution problem is discussed.The expected profit model is proved and numerically analyzed,and the optimized polices about pricing of the time slots are determined .At the same time,the following conclusion are drawn:with the fixed capabilities and increasing order volume,the gains under substitution of time slots is higher than that with no substitution;the gains under the unavailability of unpopular time slot is higher than that under the unavailability of popular ones,so it's better for the online retailing to take methods to extend the opening time of popular time slots,but in both cases the income increases more and more slower,indicating that the unavailability of time slots can cause negative effects;the higher expected utility of time slot is the higher pricing of time slots and greater income online retailers gains.